From: The Moderators'
Subject: Estimates on virus activity
Date: 16 Apr 91 23:52:15 EDT

This newspaper clipping was recently submitted to CuD.  Despite the
lack of source or date, it is interesting as an illustration of
"industry" estimates of virus infection rates, an activity that is
often blamed on the CU.   If the estimates presented as fact in this
article are correct, we should see 104 new viruses introduced in 1991.
The assertions made in this article are not unlike those often made
by so-called "hacker experts".  While we make no claim as to the
accuracy, or inaccuracy, of the information discussed in this article
it does raise some questions concerning methodology, results, and
definitions of terms when conducting research on marginal activities.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

"Computer virus infections continue to grow, multiply"
From: _Compute-It_
Bart Ziegler
AP business writer

[This appears to be a syndicated AP column, although no date is given on
the clipping we were sent it is thought to be from Feb-April 1991.]

NEW YORK -  The threat of computer viruses continues to grow as existing
viruses multiply and computer marauders introduce new varieties at the
rate of two a week, computer experts say.

The destructive invaders infect more than one-quarter of major U.S.
personal computer users each month, according to a survey released...in
conjunction with a computer virus conference.

Viruses are multiplying so rapidly that by the end of the year, nearly
every major U.S. company that is a heavy user of personal computers will
experience a virus infection once a month, predicted Peter Tippett, a
computer virus consultant.

The attacks are growing because viruses are multiplying exponentially as
they spread among computer networks and shared software, Tippett said.

In addition, he told a news conference, "There are more and more people
writing more and more viruses all the time."

[stuff omitted about viruses, bulletin boards, and the Jerusalem virus]

"People write computer viruses mainly for sport, I believe," said
Tippett, who released a survey of major personal computer users
conducted by his software company, Certus International Corp. of
Cleveland, Ohio.

The telephone survey was conducted earlier this month, aimed at computer
security and support employees at 150 companies and government agencies
with more than 400 personal computers installed.

Half the respondents said they had had a virus infection at least
once, 26 percent had an infection during January 1991, and 13 percent
said they had had at least one attack so severe it crippled at least 25
computers at once, Tippett said.

(...)

Tippett, a former biological researcher with a medical degree, said
viruses mimic the growth of their biological namesakes.  He projects
that by the end of this year, most companies with 400 or more personal
computers will have a virus attack once a month.

(...)

Among preventive measures are special anti-viral programs that inoculate
computers from known viruses or alert computer users to the presence of
these invaders.

But Tippett says that does little to block the spread of new viruses,
which he says are created all the time.  What is more important is
greater control over the sharing of software, he said.

International Business Machines Corp., the largest personal computer
maker, disputed Tippett's dire forecasts. ... IBM said...that using
atni-viral programs to detect known viruses is more effective than
Tippett asserts.  It also said that the rate viruses spread is slower
than Tippett claims because the sharing of software is not as widespread
as Tippett assumed for his projections.

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